Vol. I · No. 87 Monday, March 2, 2026 Markets Edition

will.tools

Morning Market Briefing · All Data Live as of ~11:30 AM EST
S&P 500 6,861 ▼0.26% DJIA 48,489 ▼1.0% NASDAQ 22,658 ▼0.04% VIX 21.36 ▲7.56% WTI $71.60 ▲6.6% Gold $5,099/oz BTC $65,776 ▼2.8% ETH $1,950 ▼3% 10Y ▲8bps

Global Markets Rocked as U.S.-Israel-Iran
Conflict Enters Day Three

Wall Street joined a global sell-off on Monday as the U.S.-Israel military conflict with Iran entered its third day, sending crude oil prices surging and rattling investor sentiment worldwide.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 488 points (1%) to 48,489 at the open, the S&P 500 fell 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 1.53%. European and Asian markets posted similar declines, with the DAX down 2.4% and the Hang Seng off 2.1%.

West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 6.6% to $71.60/barrel—its highest since June 2025—as Iran warned vessels away from the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 20% of global oil supply passes. Analysts at City Index warned WTI could reach $80–$90 if the Strait remains blocked.

Sovereign bonds sold off sharply, with U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rising 8 basis points on fears that elevated energy costs could reignite inflation.

NVIDIA Pours $4B Into Lumentum & Coherent; Photonics Stocks Explode

NVIDIA announced a $4 billion strategic investment into photonics leaders Lumentum (LITE) and Coherent (COHR), sending the entire optical networking sector parabolic on Monday.

AAOI surged 24.5% to $104.90 after rocketing 57% on Friday, fueled by a short squeeze, blowout Q4 earnings, and $1B+ revenue guidance for 2026. The company forecasted a $4.5B annual revenue run rate by mid-2027.

COHR jumped 13.3% to $293.36 and LITE gained 6.9% to $749.05 on the NVIDIA deal news. AXTI climbed 2.1% to $37.90 as the substrate supplier benefits from industry demand.

Rosenblatt raised its AAOI price target from $50 to $125, calling the demand trajectory "unprecedented."

SEC Clears Xanadu–Crane Harbor Merger; Analyst Day Set for March 4

The SEC declared effective the registration statement for the $3.1 billion Xanadu-Crane Harbor (CHAC) business combination, removing the final major regulatory hurdle before a shareholder vote.

CHAC trades at $10.35, holding near trust value as the merger is expected to close in Q1 2026. Xanadu has nominated four board directors, including a former DoD tech chief. An analyst day is scheduled for Tuesday, March 4.

Xanadu also received up to $23M from Canada's new Quantum Champions Program in December, bolstering its pre-merger balance sheet.

Netflix Drops Warner Bros. Bid; Paramount Swoops In at $81B

Netflix (NFLX) surged 13.75% to $96.24 after officially withdrawing its bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, allowing Paramount to close an $81 billion deal. NFLX is refocusing on organic growth and content investment.

Block (XYZ) Jumps 17% on AI Pivot, 40% Workforce Cut

Block Inc. (XYZ) soared 16.82% to $63.70 after announcing a radical restructuring that cuts 40%+ of its workforce while pivoting operations toward AI-driven automation. The market rewarded the cost discipline despite questions about long-term execution.

Wells Fargo Drops 5.6% on Mortgage Firm Exposure

WFC fell to $81.45 amid concerns over exposure to a collapsed mortgage firm. Citigroup (C) also dropped 5.2% to $110.19 on broader credit risk fears tied to inflation data. JPM held relatively steady at $300.30 (-1.9%).

TE Connectivity Plunges 9.3% on AI Disruption Fears

TEL fell sharply to $208.67 (-9.33%) as disappointing sentiment around AI disruptions in industrial connectors combined with geopolitical tensions weighed heavily on the stock.

B · Market Update

S&P 500
6,861
▼0.26%
DJIA
48,489
▼1.0%
Today's Top Gainer
AAOI
▲24.5% → $104.90
Today's Top Loser
TEL
▼9.3% → $208.67

Upcoming Earnings Dates — Key Companies

Mar 4
RGTI — Rigetti Computing Q4
Apr 14
JPM — JPMorgan Chase Q1
Apr 23
GOOG/GOOGL — Alphabet Q1
Apr 23
INTC — Intel Q1
Apr 28
SBUX — Starbucks Q2
Apr 29
META — Meta Platforms Q1
Apr 29
MSFT — Microsoft Q3
Apr 30
AMZN — Amazon Q1
May 1
XOM — Exxon Mobil Q1
May 7
AAOI — Applied Optoelectronics Q1

Ex-Dividend Dates — Coming Up

Mar 9
GOOG — $0.21/share
Mar 12
HD — $2.33/share
Mar 16
META — $0.525/share

Watchlist — Live Prices (March 2, 2026)

TickerNamePriceDay Chg
AAOIApplied Optoelectronics$104.90+24.54%
XYZBlock Inc.$63.70+16.82%
NFLXNetflix$96.24+13.75%
COHRCoherent Corp.$293.36+13.30%
LITELumentum$749.05+6.87%
MRKMerck$123.82+3.79%
COPXGlobal X Copper Miners$93.37+2.77%
PNRPentair$96.97+2.30%
AXTIAXT Inc.$37.90+2.10%
CSCOCisco Systems$79.46+1.74%
FNFabrinet$585.87+1.59%
KKRKKR & Co.$88.93+1.42%
GOOGLAlphabet (A)$311.76+1.42%
XOMExxon Mobil$154.51+1.32%
MSFTMicrosoft$396.92+1.06%
AMZNAmazon$208.22-0.85%
JPMJPMorgan Chase$300.30-1.90%
GOOGAlphabet (C)$305.12-2.03%
METAMeta Platforms$648.18-1.34%
HDHome Depot$374.09-1.74%
WFCWells Fargo$81.45-5.62%
CCitigroup$110.19-5.16%
QBTSD-Wave Quantum$18.78-6.75%
TELTE Connectivity$208.67-9.33%

C · Crypto Briefing

Bitcoin
$65,776
▼ 2.76% weekly
Intraday low: $63,030
Ethereum
$1,950
▼ ~3% (below $2K)
Resistance: $2,125
Zcash
$212.45
Privacy coins bid
Monero
$351.27
Geopolitical demand

Bitcoin slid below $66K as the U.S./Israel/Iran conflict entered day 3, dampening risk appetite. BTC bounced off a $63,030 intraday low but institutional investors are monitoring global economic shifts cautiously. Trading volumes remain consistent despite the drawdown.

Ethereum at $1,950 despite a zero validator exit queue and $6.8B in staking lockups removing supply. Vitalik Buterin backed an AI-driven speed push for Ethereum development. Key test: break $2,140 to confirm staking thesis or risk drop to $1,640.

D · Photonics Basket

AAOI · ALMU · AXTI · CHAC · COHR · FN · LITE · POET

Basket Performance

AAOI — $104.90▲24.54%
COHR — $293.36▲13.30%
LITE — $749.05▲6.87%
AXTI — $37.90▲2.10%
FN — $585.87▲1.59%
ALMU — ~$15.80
CHAC — $10.35▼0.19%
POET — $6.00▼3.85%

Sector News

NVIDIA's $4B investment into LITE and COHR is the biggest single validation of optical networking since the sector's 2020 revival. The deal secures supply for next-gen 800G/1.6T transceivers.

AAOI guides for >$1B 2026 revenue and a $4.5B run rate by mid-2027. Short interest was double the peer average—now unwinding violently. Stock is up ~90% in 2 sessions.

AXTI substrates up 250% since December. Social media accounts (Serenity, 90K followers) catalyzing retail interest in the optical chain.

CHAC × Xanadu Quantum — SPAC Merger Tracker

$3.1B deal · Photonic quantum computing · Trading at $10.35

DA Signed
Oct 2025
S-4 Filed
Dec 2025
SEC Effective ✓
Mar 2, 2026 — TODAY
Analyst Day
Mar 4, 2026
Vote / Close
Q1 2026 (exp.)

KEY: SEC registration statement declared effective today. Analyst Day is Tuesday. Board nominees include ex-DoD tech chief. Xanadu received $23M from Canada's Quantum Champions Program. Listing expected on TSX + Nasdaq.

E · Quantum Computing Basket

QTUM · GOOG · GOOGL · IBM · INTC · IONQ · MSFT · QBTS · QUBT · RGTI

Basket Performance

GOOGL — $311.76▲1.42%
MSFT — $396.92▲1.06%
RGTI — $17.55▲0.75%
INTC — $45.61▲0.33%
QUBT — $8.39▼0.30%
IONQ — $38.19▼0.46%
IBM — $240.21▼0.74%
GOOG — $305.12▼2.03%
QBTS — $18.78▼6.75%
QTUM ETF — ~$116

Sector News

IONQ acquired SkyWater Technology for $1.8B, deploying a quantum network in Romania. Record 2025 revenue of $130M with 73-88% growth guided for 2026.

QBTS (D-Wave) reported 179% Q4 revenue growth to $24.6M but a net loss of $355M. Pre-market drop of ~6%.

RGTI secured an $8.4M order for its Cepheus quantum computer. Earnings Tuesday, March 4.

QUBT secured its first quantum cybersecurity sale to a government customer.

F · Gold, Copper & Metals

Gold Surges Past $5,000; Copper at Record

Gold: $5,099/oz — a new all-time high driven by geopolitical safe-haven demand and central bank buying. Silver hit $84.40 spot. Scotiabank's 2026 deck is $4,600, meaning spot is trading at a 10.8% premium to consensus.

Copper: ~$12,987/metric ton — up 10% from December 2025. The IMF's January benchmark reflects sustained demand from electrification and data center buildout. COPX (Global X Copper Miners ETF) rose 2.77% to $93.37.

Copper Miners Snapshot

COPX$93.37 ▲2.77%
Copper (LME)~$12,987/mt
YTD Trend▲10% from Dec

The Daily Reckoning recommends COPX for retail copper exposure. Thesis intact: electrification + AI datacenter cooling = structural demand.

Back Page · Sector Baskets

Mega-Cap Tech

AMZN$208.22 ▼0.85%
GOOG$305.12 ▼2.03%
GOOGL$311.76 ▲1.42%
MSFT$396.92 ▲1.06%
META$648.18 ▼1.34%
NFLX$96.24 ▲13.75%

S&P 500 flat YTD. Mag-7 underperforming the avg stock. META's AMD deal ($100B+) diversifies AI supply. MSFT down 17% YTD. Seeking Alpha

Banks & Financials

BAC$49.86 ▲0.06%
C$110.19 ▼5.16%
JPM$300.30 ▼1.90%
WFC$81.45 ▼5.62%
KKR$88.93 ▲1.42%

Jamie Dimon warns of pre-crisis market risks. WFC mortgage firm exposure. KKR acquiring Arctos ($1.4B sports deal). Yahoo Finance

Healthcare

CI$289.08 ▼0.26%
MDT$97.66 ▲0.65%
MRK$123.82 ▲3.79%
OGN$7.17 ▼0.83%

MRK's KEYTRUDA trials show significant advances in multiple cancer types. MDT planning MiniMed diabetes unit IPO. OGN near all-time lows. Yahoo Finance

Industrials

JCI$144.30 ▲0.61%
PNR$96.97 ▲2.30%
TEL$208.67 ▼9.33%
MSI$485.77 ▲0.73%
NVT$118.36 ▼2.82%

JCI up 73% in a year on datacenter cooling via Alloy Enterprises acquisition. PNR record FY25 earnings (+14% adj. EPS). TEL hammered today. Yahoo Finance

Consumer & Travel

SBUX$96.14 ▼1.92%
UBER$74.38 ▼1.30%
TRIP$10.36 ▼0.99%
HD$374.09 ▼1.74%

SBUX faces tariff headwinds. UBER launching Air service + autonomous vehicles. TRIP near 52-wk lows. HD dividend raised. Yahoo Finance

Energy

XOM$154.51 ▲1.32%

Oil surging on Iran conflict — WTI at $71.60. XOM benefits as a top energy major but faces legal proceedings. Guyana production continues growing. Yield: 2.70%.

Yield: 2.70%. Yahoo Finance

Income & Yield

ARCC$18.74 ▲0.62%

~10% dividend yield. Ares Capital faces private credit disruption concerns but analysts maintain cautious optimism. High yield partly from BDC structure.

~10% yield via BDC structure. Yahoo Finance

Broad Market

QQQ~$525
SPYS&P 500: 6,861 ▼0.26%
^DJIDJIA: ~48,489 ▼1.0%
^VIX21.36 ▲7.56%

VIX spiking on geopolitical risk. S&P 500 flat YTD — tightest range on record through first 2 months. Russell 2000 +0.15%. Yahoo Finance

SCOTUS Rules Against Trump Trade Tariffs

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled against the Trump administration's IEEPA-based trade tariffs, adding uncertainty to global trade policy. Several companies are now filing refund lawsuits, which could reshape the tariff landscape going forward.

Meta's $100B+ AMD AI Chip Deal: "Two Worlds"

Meta will deploy data center gear based on AMD processors in a deal worth "double-digit billions per gigawatt" — diversifying away from NVIDIA's dominance. Meta's 2026 capex guidance: $115B–$135B.

KKR Acquires Arctos Sports Investor in $1.4B Deal

KKR agreed to acquire Arctos Partners, which holds stakes in several American professional sports franchises. Each league must approve the deal. KKR reported Q4 2025 results in February with mixed reception.